Car production and sales in 2023 are expected to reach 30 million units, a record high


Wang Jinyu

On December 11, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held the 2024 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit in Beijing, and various institutions and enterprises made a comprehensive forecast of the current development of China's automobile market. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that in 2023, China's total auto sales are expected to reach 30 million units, an increase of 11.7 percent. In 2024, production and sales are expected to reach 31 million units, an increase of 3%.



The macro economy continues to recover automobile production and sales continue to grow positively


Bi Jiyao, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that in 2023, the national economy will continue to recover, and the annual growth rate is expected to exceed 5%. The main performance is that the economic stabilization and recovery trend is obvious, domestic demand continues to expand, production and supply are steadily increasing, the employment situation is generally improved, the price trend is generally stable, and foreign trade imports and exports remain resilient. On the basis of sustained economic recovery, China has made new strides in high-quality development, continued to shift the growth model, continued to optimize the economic structure, and accelerated the growth of new drivers of development. "We need to keep new difficulties and challenges in perspective." He stressed that China's economy continued to recover, the overall recovery is good, and the high-quality development is solid, but we must also see that the international political and economic situation is complex, our country is in the critical period of economic recovery and industrial upgrading, and economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges. "It should be recognized that after the smooth turn of epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery is a process of wavy development and tortuous progress, which cannot be achieved overnight." We need to make a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term analysis and judgment of the current economic situation, looking at both the general nature and the particularity, at both the growth rate and the structure and driving force, at both the country and the world, and at both the current situation and the long-term trend." Judging from the development trend, the Chinese economy has strong resilience, great potential and vitality, and the fundamentals for long-term sound development have not changed. As long as we maintain strategic focus and enhance confidence in development, we are fully equipped to promote sustained and sound economic development.


Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Economic Development Research Center of The State Council, stressed that at present, China's auto market has entered a period of medium-low growth, and new car sales are expected to maintain a potential growth rate of 2%-3% by 2030. The decline in macroeconomic growth will be transmitted to the automobile market through the consumer market. Income and employment expectations have fallen, the stock market and housing market are depressed, and consumer spending has been most resilient in categories with a high proportion of consumption. This year's "double 11" overall consumption growth has fallen sharply, regional and urban consumption power differentiation, high consumer groups and youth consumption significantly contracted, these changes in consumption will also affect the development of the automobile market. Affected by the surge in export volume, sales and domestic sales are separated; Under the influence of the consumer market, domestic sales and potential sales are separated. The weak recovery of consumption depends on the recovery of the economy and the consumption market. Wholesale sales continue to maintain about 5% growth, growth is expected to fall, still has not recovered potential growth level.


S&p Global Auto China deputy director of sales Tao Gao judged that in 2024, the development trend of the auto market may show a low trend after a high trend. The globalization process of Chinese auto companies relies on exports in the short term, and must rely on global production capacity layout in the long term. The trend of electrification will form a high-low match of "pure electric + hybrid"; Independent brands will maintain growth, but the growth rate will slow down, at the same time, cooperation between brands will become the norm, the pattern of a dominant smaller possibility.


Hao Hong, director of market and brand management at SAIC's Quality and economic Operations Department, judged that the auto market will grow moderately in 2024. On the basis of the annual sales (wholesale volume, the same below) of 29.8 million to 30 million units in 2023, the annual sales in 2024 are likely to reach about 3.1 million to 32 million units, an increase of 4.0% to 6.7%. Among them, exports are likely to reach 5.2 million to 5.8 million units, an increase of 11% to 16%.


Chen Chuan, director of the passenger car Strategy Research Office of China Automobile Data, proposed that the passenger car market, economic support increased slightly, policy support decreased slightly, market and supply support increased, and the interaction of 3.2% year-on-year growth in 2024 (excluding exports, the same below). Under the tone of quality and quantity improvement, the market development of commercial vehicles faces new weakening, renewal support, and heavy differentiation; Enhanced policy effects and improved market and supply initiatives will drive 13% year-on-year growth in commercial vehicles in 2024. Overall, in 2024, the auto market will continue to adjust and repair, and the annual sales are expected to stabilize and increase by 4.4%, of which, the sales of new energy will reach 10.14 million, through an increase of 30.1%, and the penetration rate will reach 39.3%.


New energy vehicles continue to maintain rapid growth


Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that it is expected that the overall retail sales of passenger cars will reach 22.2 million units in 2024, an increase of 3% from 2023. If Russian exports continue to grow strongly, combined with the contribution of 4.3 million passenger car exports, the overall chivalrous passenger car sales will reach 26.5 million units, an increase of 5%. It is expected that in 2024, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles will reach 11 million, with a net increase of 2.3 million, an increase of 22%, and a penetration rate of 40%, and new energy passenger vehicles will maintain a strong growth momentum.


Chen Liran, director of forecasting research at the China Automotive Strategic Development Research Center of Tianjin University, believes that the overall automobile market will maintain stable growth in 2024. Among them, the domestic sales growth rate of fuel vehicles will continue to decrease, and exports will steadily rise; The overall new energy vehicle market will grow rapidly, passenger car sales will continue to grow rapidly, the market share of commercial vehicles will further increase, and the export growth rate will slow down.


Liu Luochuan, strategic development research center of Dongfeng Strategic Planning and Science and Technology Development Department, said that in 2023, China continues to surpass Germany and Japan to become the first auto export country. With the rapid development of China's automobile exports, Chinese automobile companies began to build factories intensively in the sea, and it is predicted that by 2030, the proportion of trade exports and overseas factory sales will reach 50:50. The proportion of new energy vehicle exports continues to increase, and it is predicted that by 2030, the proportion of new energy vehicles in overseas sales of passenger cars in China will reach 53%.


In the opinion of Wang Xuechao, deputy director of the China Automotive Research and Political Research Consulting Center, in 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales will exceed 10 million, of which the proportion of pure electric is expected to reach 65%, and the proportion of plug-in hybrid (including increased program) is 35%; It is expected that by 2024, China's L2 intelligent connected passenger car market penetration rate will reach more than 40%, and L2+ intelligent connected passenger car market penetration rate will reach more than 12%.



The proportion of automobile exports will gradually increase


Liu Ming, deputy director of the information and Industrial Development Department of the International Information Center, stressed that China's auto market is in the development stage of three phases of superposition, this stage, the new car market will maintain medium-low growth, concentration, brand differentiation; The used car market is developing rapidly, new car consumption is high-end, and regional consumption is concentrated. The emerging automobile industry is also in the growth period, and the consumption upgrade shows the new characteristics of electrification and intelligence. The superposition of the three phases of the market intensifies the market competition and reshapes the industrial pattern; Focus on technology to become the new focus of new car consumption; Independent brands are in the forefront of complying with the trend of consumption, and their status has been significantly improved.


In the view of Han Junshan, Vice chairman and secretary general of the China Automobile Journalists Association and publisher and editor-in-chief of Automobile magazine, automobile consumption "get three-five line, get the world", and in the development process of the future three-five line automobile market, the trend of continued growth of market space will not change, the demand will continue to highlight, and policy guidance will provide help for enterprises to explore the market.


Tan Huilong, vice minister of the strategic planning Department of Changan Automobile, judged that the domestic industry-wide retail sales in 2023 will reach 23.65 million units, which has not yet recovered to the level of 2019 (24.52 million units), and is basically the same as in 2020. The export is the main factor in the deviation of the total forecast in the past two years, and the inventory pressure in the domestic market has rebounded, and the impact on 2024 is worthy of attention.


Sun Xiaohong, secretary-general of the Automobile branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, said that according to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs and Exports, it is expected that in 2023, China's automobile exports are expected to reach 5.2 million vehicles (including low-speed electric vehicles and used cars). In the next two years, China's automobile exports are expected to maintain a growth rate of 15%-20%, and it is expected that in 2024, the export growth rate can reach 20%, reaching 6 million units. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase to more than 35%, with a growth rate of 30%-35%; The contribution rate of pure electric passenger vehicles to the growth of vehicle exports is expected to exceed 50%.


Google car and Internet of Things industry director Zhu Chenkai introduced that the survey shows that in 2023, overseas consumers' loyalty to traditional car brands is fading, the trend of electrization is accelerating, online purchase is gradually mainstream, buyers need efficient information channels, (evaluation) video affects the whole process of car purchase. These changes will affect the development of Chinese automotive products overseas, and enterprises need to pay attention.


Guo Haibo, manager of the overseas operations management department of Great Wall Motor Co., estimates that China's auto exports will reach 4.8 million units in 2023. After 2024, with the deepening of China's localization to the sea, the level of overseas production bases radiating to the surrounding regions will increase, and the scale of exports from China's local market may enter a plateau period.


Originally published by China Automotive News on December 11, 2023