The "golden nine" of the heavy truck market came as expected.

 

According to the sales data provided by various heavy truck enterprises, in September this year, China's heavy truck market sold about 80,000 models of various types (invoicing statistical caliber, including export and new energy vehicles), an increase of 55%, an increase of 12%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was 701,000 units, an increase of 34%, and the growth rate was 2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

 

Four companies sold more than 10,000 units

 

In the monthly "qualifying" of the heavy truck market, the top ten enterprises all achieved year-on-year growth, and there were four enterprises with monthly sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles, and five enterprises outperformed the market.

 

Specifically, in September, SinotruK sold 21,000 vehicles, an increase of 55% over the same period last year, and held the top spot. From January to September, SinotruK's cumulative sales volume was about 190,900 vehicles, an increase of 52% year-on-year, and its market share was 27.2%. Faw Jiefang sold about 14,000 heavy trucks in September, an increase of 69%, ranking second in the industry; From January to September, FAW Jiefang accumulated sales of about 137,800 heavy trucks, an increase of 39%, and the market share was 19.7%. In September, Dongfeng sold about 13,000 heavy trucks, an increase of 44%, ranking third in monthly sales; From January to September, Dongfeng Company sold a total of about 110,800 heavy trucks, an increase of 16%, and its market share reached 15.8%. Shaanxi Automobile Group sold about 12,500 heavy trucks in September, up 20% year on year, ranking fourth; From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of Shaanxi Automobile Group was 112,900 vehicles, an increase of 36%, and the market share was 16.1%. In September, Foton automobile sales of about 7900 heavy cargoes, an increase of 52%, ranking fifth in the month; From January to September, Foton Automobile cumulative sales of about 67,900 heavy trucks, an increase of 24%, the market share of 9.7%.

 

In September, Dayun heavy truck sales of 2,252 units, an increase of 97%, ranking sixth; From January to September, the cumulative sales of Dayun heavy trucks were 19,646, an increase of 34%, and the market share was 2.8%. Jianghuai heavy truck sales in September 1700 units, an increase of 111%, the growth rate of the industry first, monthly ranking seventh; From January to September, Jianghuai heavy truck cumulative sales of 12,972 units, an increase of 35%, the market share of 1.9%. Xugong heavy trucks sold 1,400 units in September, an increase of 90% year-on-year, ranking eighth; From January to September, Xugong heavy truck cumulative sales of 12,768 units, an increase of 30%, the market share of 1.8%. In September, Beiben heavy truck sales of 860 units, an increase of 37%, ranking ninth; From January to September, the cumulative sales of North Ben heavy trucks were 7676 units, down 41% year-on-year, and the market share was 1.1%. In September, SAIC Hongyan sold 800 heavy trucks, an increase of 13%, ranking tenth; From January to September, SAIC Hongyan accumulated sales of 6,555 vehicles, down 40% year-on-year, and its market share was 0.9%.

 

Natural gas heavy truck is the main driving force of the market

 

Since February, the domestic heavy truck industry has achieved "8 consecutive rises" year-on-year, and the current market is showing a rapid recovery trend, and the growth momentum is higher than expected.

 

Taking the heavy truck market in September as an example, the sales result of 80,000 units was higher than the same period in 2018, 2021 and 2022, and close to the sales level in the same month in 2019 (83,600 units); From the perspective of monthly sales this year, the performance of the heavy truck market in September is also quite bright.

 

In the view of industry experts, the double growth of the heavy truck market in September is mainly due to the following reasons: First, due to the low sales base in the same period last year (only 51,800 vehicles), creating conditions for the year-on-year growth of the heavy truck market in September this year; Second, since the beginning of this year, the heavy truck export market has continued to improve. In September, although affected by the increase of scrap processing fees for imported vehicles in Russia, overseas exports of heavy trucks declined month-on-month, but still maintained an increase of about 40% year-on-year; Third, the recovery of the heavy truck segment market is obvious, especially the natural gas heavy truck market, driven by stricter environmental control and continued low gas prices, natural gas heavy truck sales have achieved "9 consecutive rises", and sales of more than 10,000 units for 6 consecutive months.

 

"Since the beginning of this year, the natural gas heavy truck market boom, sales have increased significantly, has become an important force to pull the recovery of the heavy truck market." At the same time, major commercial vehicle companies have also made adequate preparations to seize a larger market share by expanding production capacity and increasing production scheduling. Among them, nearly 70% of the production scheduling tasks of many manufacturers are natural gas models, which shows that car companies are making every effort to respond to the outbreak of demand for natural gas heavy trucks and avoid losing orders due to insufficient capacity." The relevant person in charge of FAW Jiefang Sales Co., LTD.

 

"Today, natural gas heavy trucks are popular with users, in the context of the downturn in the freight market and the decline in freight rates, natural gas heavy trucks can help truck drivers reduce costs and increase efficiency, bringing more benefits." Recently, our region running transport card friends have "abandoned oil for gas", and many users have given up the diesel car that has just bought 1 to 2 years, and turned to buy natural gas heavy trucks. It is reported that even gas cylinder resources are running short. Henan heavy truck dealer Liu Zhiwei said.

 

Annual sales may exceed expectations

 

Heavy truck market "gold nine" as scheduled, "silver ten" can take over?

 

"From the current trend, 'Silver Ten' heavy truck sales are still expected to achieve steady growth on the same quarter, is expected to reach about 80,000 units of scale." The head of the brand department of Shaanxi Automobile Group told reporters that under the role of the gradual improvement of the macro economy and the concerted efforts of various policies, the demand for heavy trucks will continue to be released, providing a boost to short-term market growth. However, the structure of new car sales will change. Judging from the current production schedule and terminal demand, the sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks will continue to rise. Driven by this, the annual performance of the heavy truck market is expected to exceed industry expectations.

 

"It is expected that in the next few months, the natural gas heavy truck market will continue to advance, and the annual sales volume will exceed 120,000 units, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%; In contrast, diesel vehicles in the short term or difficult to 'turn over', due to the freight market more and less cargo, excess capacity, low freight, resulting in a large number of end users to give up buying diesel vehicles, instead to buy a certain profit space of natural gas heavy truck; In terms of exports, heavy truck sales are expected to hit a new record of 260,000 units. Although new energy heavy trucks are less than expected, they have been significantly stronger in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the market will show a development trend of 'low before high'." The relevant person in charge of FAW liberation said that under the excellent performance of the market segment, the heavy truck industry has significantly recovered, and the total annual sales are expected to reach 930,000.

 

For the future trend of the heavy truck market, Southwest Securities believes that with the introduction of the new stable growth policy and the gradual clearing of the overdraft effect, heavy truck sales will achieve quarter-on-quarter growth in the fourth quarter of this year, and annual sales may exceed 900,000 units.

 

Originally published by China Automotive News, October 10, 2023