Recently, the Japan Natural Energy Foundation released a report "Re-examining Japanʼs Hydrogen Strategy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which rethinks Japan's hydrogen energy development strategy.

 

In 2017, Japan was the first country in the world to develop a hydrogen strategy. Five years later, however, Japan is far below its main growth target. The report argues that Japan's hydrogen strategy prioritizes gray and blue hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, ignoring green hydrogen and neglecting the development of renewable energy.

 

Gan Yong, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, told reporters that the report's reflection is more pertinent. The hindrance of Japan's hydrogen energy strategic development is the result of a combination of many factors, the lag in green hydrogen development is an important factor, and other resistance cannot be ignored.

 

Gan Yong pointed out that in general, China's hydrogen energy development is not much different from Japan, but it is different in specific directions and applications, especially for the development and application of green hydrogen, China attaches more importance to it than Japan.

 

Xu Xiaoming, chairman and general manager of Beijing Gerui Energy Technology Co., Ltd., professor and doctoral supervisor of University of Science and Technology Beijing, believes that Japan is the pioneer of hydrogen energy planning, and summarizing experience from Japan's experience and lessons has good reference significance for the development of China's hydrogen energy industry.

 

 

01 Reflections on Japan

 

In 2014, the Japanese government released a strategic roadmap for hydrogen and fuel cells, which was revised in 2016. It is clear that Japan's hydrogen energy plan is earlier than other countries. However, the report argues that whether Japan's hydrogen energy plan matches the global goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 needs further evaluation.

 

In October 2020, Japan officially announced that it would achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In April 2021, Japan announced its greenhouse gas emissions and emission targets for 2030. In October 2021, Japan's sixth strategic energy plan stated that Japan will work to "achieve carbon neutrality through the realization of a hydrogen society" and will "revise its basic hydrogen strategy based on the role of hydrogen in the era."

 

The report argues that although Japan was one of the first countries to develop a hydrogen strategy and built a large-scale supply chain based on this strategy, the hydrogen strategy was not based on a zero-carbon society, which led to Japan's green hydrogen production lagging behind Europe, China and other countries. This lag stems from Japan's priority on the development of gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen, however, a large number of imported gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen do not help reduce carbon emissions.

 

On the other hand, Japan's hydrogen strategy does not pay enough attention to renewable energy. Europe is leading the way in green hydrogen, and the emphasis on renewable energy is an important reason, it is expected that 70% of Europe's electricity in the future will come from renewable sources, and by 2030, Europe's energy costs will be less than half that of Japan.

 

The report argues that although Japan was one of the first countries to develop a hydrogen strategy and built a large-scale supply chain based on this strategy, the hydrogen strategy was not based on a zero-carbon society, which led to Japan's green hydrogen production lagging behind Europe, China and other countries. This lag stems from Japan's priority on the development of gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen, however, a large number of imported gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen do not help reduce carbon emissions.

 

On the other hand, Japan's hydrogen strategy does not pay enough attention to renewable energy. Europe is leading the way in green hydrogen, and the emphasis on renewable energy is an important reason, it is expected that 70% of Europe's electricity in the future will come from renewable sources, and by 2030, Europe's energy costs will be less than half that of Japan.

 

The report believes that the main problems of Japan's hydrogen energy strategy are manifested in three aspects: first, application scenarios; The second is to attach importance to gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen; Third, domestic green hydrogen production lags behind.

 

In terms of application scenarios, the report points out that hydrogen energy should be prioritized in areas lacking zero-carbon means, and hydrogen energy should not be used in areas where other efficient and economical methods can be used to reduce carbon emissions, such as areas where renewable energy can be directly used or heat pumps, which should not use hydrogen energy.

 

There is another important scenario that is not suitable for hydrogen energy, that is, passenger cars, in this field, electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles have strong competitiveness. Japan's hydrogen strategy has included fuel cell passenger vehicles as one of the focal points, and despite later changes in the roadmap, fuel cell passenger vehicles still play a central role.

 

The report argues that the hydrogen strategy for 2017 is more like a fuel cell strategy, with the core content of promoting residential fuel cell systems, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and emphasizing the construction of hydrogen refueling stations. Although hydrogen strategies mention hydrogen applications in the power generation and industrial sectors, 80% of the use cases are FCs and FCVs.

 

The report points out that hydrogen energy has a wide range of applications, in addition to fuel cells, steelmaking, synthetic methane, renewable energy and other fields can be efficiently applied.

 

Data show that from 2012 to 2021, Japan's annual budget for hydrogen energy was 40 billion to 70 billion yen, spending more than 460 billion yen in 10 years, and from 2012 to 2016, FC, FCV and hydrogen station budgets were particularly high, since then, about 50% of Japan's hydrogen energy budget is also for FC, FCV and hydrogen stations, overall, 70% of the budget spent on FC, FCV and hydrogen stations in 10 years.

 

The Japanese government has set a target of 5 million fuel cell users in 2030, and despite a large budget support, actual sales are still sluggish, since 2017, only 4,000-5,000 units have been sold per year, and a total of 433,000 units have been sold by 2021, according to this trend, about 900,000 users in 2030, less than 1/5 of the target.

 

FCVs are also in a bad situation, originally planned to reach 80,000 users by 2030, since their launch in 2014, annual sales of about 500-1,500 units, as of 2020 total 5,170 units, according to this trend, 2030 will not exceed 20,000 units, about 1/4 of the target.

 

Japan expects hydrogen demand to reach 3 million tons by 2030, and currently, 2 million tons of hydrogen is used for petroleum processing, which means that demand has increased by 1 million tons. By then, about 200,000 tons of hydrogen can be used by 800,000 FCVs.

 

Japan's largest power company, JERA, is moving forward with a hydrogen and natural gas co-firing power generation project that will begin testing in 2023, but the use of hydrogen and ammonia for power generation is questionable, and the biggest problem is the compatibility of hydrogen, ammonia and coal combustion rates. Although hydrogen and ammonia do not produce CO2 during combustion, manufacturing hydrogen and ammonia from fossil fuels produces CO2, which offsets its clean advantages.

 

The report mentions in the summary of issues that compared with the hydrogen strategies and policies of the United States, China, the United Kingdom and other countries, the biggest problem in Japan's hydrogen strategy is the government's funding for gray and blue hydrogen.

 

02 The difference between Japan's hydrogen strategy and China

 

Reporters have participated in industry conferences for many times, and some experts mentioned in their speeches that human development is closely related to energy transformation, from wood to coal, and then further upgraded to oil, with the change of energy mode, industrial development has entered a new era. Oil is non-renewable and has a lot of carbon emissions. Hydrogen energy is optimistic by many experts for its excellent characteristics such as clean and efficient, and is regarded as the main carrier of future energy. Based on this understanding, Japan took the lead in the world to formulate a national hydrogen energy strategy.

 

Xu Xiaoming told reporters that Japan's hydrogen energy strategic goal is to build a global "hydrogen energy society" and strive to build a Japanese-led hydrogen energy industry chain on a global scale. As we all know, Japan is extremely dependent on overseas energy imports, and the Japanese government has announced that it will strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This has forced Japan to accelerate the search for safe alternative energy sources, hydrogen energy pilots continue to be rolled out, and a hydrogen energy social strategy has emerged.

 

China is the world's largest energy consumer, but its resource endowment is relatively poor, oil, natural gas and other energy shortages are high. From the perspective of energy structure, China is overly dependent on coal, and the energy dilemma is obvious, and an efficient and clean alternative energy source is needed to make a breakthrough.

 

Xu Xiaoming told reporters that although they both attach importance to hydrogen energy, the conditions in China and Japan are very different. Japan's large population density and small geographical area are more favorable to the transportation of hydrogen energy and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations. China's coal production is high, the resource advantage is very abundant, and a large amount of "gray hydrogen" will be produced in daily chemical and other industrial production, and the amount is very large.

 

"The biggest problem in the development of hydrogen energy in Japan is the role positioning, and Japan positions itself as a supporting application of hydrogen energy, rather than a producer." Xu Xiaoming said.

 

The smooth realization of the hydrogen energy strategy needs to solve two problems, one is the production of hydrogen, and the other is the supporting construction of hydrogen energy. Although Japan started early, it has not achieved a technological breakthrough in "green hydrogen" production, and most of it has been invested in the construction of hydrogen energy supporting facilities and fuel cell research and development in the implementation of hydrogen energy strategy.

 

Under this role-oriented thinking, Japan gives priority to the application of "gray hydrogen", and the production of "green hydrogen" lags significantly behind Europe and China. Xu Xiaoming said: "If hydrogen energy can replace oil in the future, then green hydrogen technology must make a breakthrough, can not rely on fossil raw materials to produce hydrogen for a long time, the process of fossil energy combustion to produce hydrogen will inevitably cause energy loss, blindly relying on 'gray hydrogen' is by no means a long-term solution for the development of hydrogen energy." ”

 

Xu Xiaoming emphasized that 70% of Japan's early 460 billion yen budget was used for fuel cell passenger vehicles, hydrogen refueling infrastructure and residential fuel cells, and its hydrogen energy strategy also led to Toyota, Honda and other Japanese automobile companies unwilling to change the development direction to new energy power batteries, if the turn means that the construction of hydrogen energy supporting facilities invested in the early stage will be useless.

 

Starting from the actual situation, China focuses on the development of hydrogen energy industry from commercial use in the automotive field, which is very different from Japan's focus on passenger cars. Academician Gan Yong told reporters that in the automotive field can use batteries do not use hydrogen energy, and in heavy trucks and other fields can consider hydrogen energy, a bus battery of nearly 3 tons, heavy truck transportation is usually long-distance, if the battery is too heavy.

 

Academician Gan Yong also told reporters that China not only pays attention to the application of hydrogen energy, but also attaches great importance to green hydrogen production, offshore and onshore wind power hydrogen production, solar photovoltaic hydrogen production, etc. have their own core technologies, and have a certain scale. Japan's hydrogen energy development and China is also a big difference, Japan in the implementation of hydrogen energy strategy, some resistance is difficult to overcome, and China's hydrogen energy development is a national chess game, local interests subordinate to the overall situation of the country, for example, wind and photovoltaic to the power grid has a certain harm, China's power department actively find ways to solve the problem, the national power grid will absorb a certain amount of wind photovoltaic every year.

 

03 China's hydrogen energy industry has achieved certain results

 

China attaches great importance to the hydrogen energy industry, and through the joint efforts of everyone, certain results have been achieved.

 

According to the data of the "China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry White Paper 2020", China's hydrogen production capacity is about 4.1×107 tons per year, the output is about 3.342×107 tons per year, and the hydrogen energy production in 2021 exceeded 33 million tons. In the past five years, the number of registered hydrogen energy related enterprises in China has grown rapidly, with a total of more than 2,000, and in the field of transportation, more than 10,000 vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells are in the demonstration operation stage, and China has become the world's largest hydrogen producer and fuel cell commercial vehicle market. It is expected that by 2025, the cumulative output value of the hydrogen energy industry will be close to one trillion yuan.

 

Xu Xiaoming told reporters that the development of China's hydrogen energy industry is inseparable from the strong support of the state. In March 2019, China included hydrogen energy development in the government work report for the first time; In 2021, hydrogen energy was officially written into the 14th Five-Year Plan, and governments at all levels intensively introduced incentive policies and further increased subsidies; In March 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)", which affirmed the important position of hydrogen energy in the future national energy system. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China will implement the hydrogen energy industry incubation and acceleration plan, and plan to lay out a number of hydrogen energy industries. Under the guidance of national policies, many provinces have issued guidance documents for hydrogen energy development, large energy enterprises have begun to enter the market, investment in the field of hydrogen energy infrastructure has grown explosively, and the effect of regional industrial agglomeration has also initially appeared.

 

Demonstration and promotion is one of the effective ways to implement for a long time in China, and the development of hydrogen energy is no exception, and the demonstration and promotion project of fuel cell vehicles is effective. The work of the five national demonstration city clusters is commendable. The cumulative number of fuel cell vehicles promoted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei demonstration city cluster in 2022 will be 1,197, completing 22.58% of the total promotion task of 5,300 vehicles in the four-year demonstration period, ranking first among the five demonstration city clusters, with the Shanghai urban agglomeration completing 20.74% and the Henan urban agglomeration completing 17.6%.

 

At present, more than one-third of central enterprises have accelerated the layout of the hydrogen energy industry, involved in all links of the hydrogen energy industry chain, including hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogenation, hydrogen use and other chains or links of the whole industrial chain, especially the key layout of key materials, core technologies and core equipment that restrict the sound and development of China's hydrogen energy industry chain and other technical "bottlenecks".

 

04 Reflections on Japan Our revelations

 

Cost is one of the important indicators to measure the prospects of commercialization, and at present, the cost of green hydrogen is still a roadblock.

 

From the perspective of hydrogen production, the cost of electrolytic hydrogen still lacks commercial competitiveness, and the current oil price is much lower than the price of using green hydrogen; From the perspective of hydrogen storage, the hydrogen density is very small, which makes the transportation and storage cost of hydrogen prominent, and the balance relationship between energy density and transportation cost has not been effectively solved. From the perspective of hydrogen use, hydrogen is more difficult to control than traditional fossil fuels, and the construction cost of hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen pipelines remains high, resulting in green hydrogen facing technical, cost and infrastructure obstacles in the process of industrial landing.

 

Xu Xiaoming believes that at present, China lacks enough fuel cell industry talents, and few universities provide relevant courses. The widespread introduction of hydrogen into society will require new measures and skills, including safety, material handling, fire warning and disaster management, etc., the maintenance and operation of hydrogen refueling stations require skilled technicians to control, hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogenation and fuel cells and other key devices and equipment research and development, production and testing require a large number of professional and technical personnel, the lack of hydrogen energy professionals, will hinder the healthy development of China's hydrogen energy industry.

 

Xu Xiaoming emphasized that the hydrogen energy society covers the whole hydrogen energy industry chain such as hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, hydrogen energy utilization and infrastructure construction, and the market of one country alone is not enough to support the development of large-scale industrialized hydrogen energy. On the basis of grasping the orderly and healthy development of the domestic market, China also needs to promote in-depth cooperation among countries in the field of hydrogen energy, symbiosis and sharing, and mutual benefit.

 

Originally published on China Automotive News on February 27, 2023